Le cancer de l’Europe : Le surendettement

Dans le passé pour estimer la richesse d’ pays il fallait analyser la qualité de ses sols ou de ses sous-sols…voir sa position géopolitique ou stratégique ou bien les montants de ses exportations. Malheureusement ces cartes sont aujourd’hui obsolètes. Ce n’est pas parce qu’un pays est bien situé, riches de minéraux ou un bon pays exportateur, qu’il n’est pas atteint du « cancer économique » c’est-à-dire « le surendettement ».

En effet, même si la dette des pays riches montre des signes de stabilisation, elle se situe à des “niveaux historiquement hauts” nécessitant de réduire les dépenses publiques, a affirmé mercredi le Fonds monétaire international (FMI).
En moyenne, la dette publique des pays riches devrait, comme en 2013, atteindre cette année 107,1% de leur produit intérieur brut (PIB) avant de décliner très légèrement de 0,2 point en 2015, selon les prévisions du Fonds mais qui restent très volatiles.
En comparaison, celle des pays émergents devrait atteindre seulement 33,7% de leur PIB cette année !!!
Avec un ratio de dette/PIB de 243,5% prévu en 2014, le Japon devrait encore figurer en tête du peloton des pays développés les plus endettés, suivi par la Grèce (174,7%), sous assistance financière depuis 2010, et l’Italie (134,5%) mais d’autres pays suivent de près.
Alors il y a t-il vraiment une solution au surendettement des Nations Européennes ?
Il est toujours très difficile de réduire son train de vie lorsqu’on a pris ses habitudes et que l’on vit au dessus de ses moyens depuis plusieurs décennies. Un vieux dicton disait qu’il n’est pas bon d’attraper froid par ses pieds. Ou en d’autres termes il faut savoir quelle est la taille de sa couverture sinon on risque de tomber malade. C’est bien ce fléaux qui a touché profondément l’Europe. Depuis des décennies, à travers ses gouvernements successifs, toute sensibilité politique confondue, ils n’ont cessé de gangrener les finances de l’Etat par des dettes successives. Il est vrai que ces fonds emprunter et qui devront être remboursé par les enfants et les petits enfants on permit à certains gouvernement de tenir l’une ou l’autre promesse électorale ou de se constituer une clientèle politique.
Petite cerise sur le gâteau, dès l’entrée des Pays dans l’Union Européenne avec les fameux critères de Maastricht et le pacte de stabilité (si peu suivi et si peu maîtrisé) représentaient les garanties écrites d’une zone économique stable et forte. Exactement ce dont les banques avaient besoin pour sortir leurs chéquiers et donner des emprunts « dans un premier temps » aux Etats à taux d’intérêts très bas.
Ce phénomène a créer ce fameux cercle vicieux – La banque prête à l’Etat – L’Etat défaillant ne sait plus rembourser aux banques – La pression de la dette retombe sur la classe moyenne – la Banque ferme ses robinets et ne donne plus de liquidités – et l’austérité réduit la croissance… et on recommence …
Cette semaine, le Parlement européen a adopté à une très large majorité un ensemble de textes complétant l’union bancaire, afin d’éviter que les faillites des banques de la zone euro ne soient supportées à l’avenir par les contribuables.
Mais pour cela il faudra encore tenir jusqu’à 2016 date butoir pour les banques qu’elles assainissent leurs bilans et donner les garanties de solvabilité à la BCE.
D’ici là, si les pays européens n’entreprennent pas des démarches urgentes pour uniformiser leur politique budgétaire et fiscal, s’ils ne revoient pas les coûts du travail à la baisse, s’ils ne redonnent de la compétitivité aux entreprises, s’il ne s’auto administre pas dans la douleur un peu chimio thérapie avec ses effets secondaires, ou des privations pendant un temps, …je crains que la bataille économique contre le surendettement ne finisse par l’emporter…

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