La Crise Ukrainienne quel Impact économique pour l’Europe?

 

Après la crise bancaire, puis la question de l’élargissement estimée  trop rapide par l’Euroland,  voilà qu’une nouvelle crise  pourrait avoir des conséquences économiques néfastes, non négligeables sur l’économie Européenne et sur les marchés boursiers.

La question qui est sur toutes les lèvres est

Faut-il craindre une escalade dans ce conflit et si oui avec quelles conséquences  pour l’Europe ?

Même si les  paroles rassurante du Président Obama  sur l’exclusion d’une intervention militaire rassurent  quelques peu la communauté internationale, le spectre d’une montée des tensions est bien là sur fonds  une évolution en  guerre civile.

A  ce stade,  l’économie mondiale  n’est pas affectée par  le problème Ukrainien même si le climat économique général  est assez morose, Grèce, Argentine, Vénézuela, Turquie, croissance en berne même en Chine et la Russie de  clôturer 2013 avec 1,3% de croissance  alors qu’elle avait tablée sur 2%  et comme à chaque crise, une incertitude s’installe avec ces conséquences logiques.

Nous assistons notamment à une fuite des capitaux, rien qu’en Russie au cours du 1er trimestre de cette année les estimations tournent autour des 70 milliards de dollars  selon Ivan Tchakarov, chef économiste pour la City de Moscou,  on parle également d’un problème de stagnation de l’économie (comme celle que l’Europe à connue de 2010 à 2012) avec des risques de récessions à moyen terme.

Bien évidement les sanctions imposées à la Russie, et leurs effets « discutables », ne rassurent pas outre mesure,  l’idée a elle seule crée  un climat qui rappelle des jours sombres et des dissensions  entre les deux blocs, raniment ainsi  des sentiments propres à la guerre froide.

Ces sanctions assez atypiques qui touchent principalement une 20aine de personnalités et une banque (symbolique) sont ressenties comme très personnalisées et sans impacts général.

Il est fort probable en fonction de l’évolution de la crise que des sanctions par secteurs  visent bientôt l’économie Russe de manière plus générale (énergie, banque, finance et armement) tels que cela ressort des pays du G7 qui lancent l’avertissement.

Les agences de notations américaines ont aussi de leur côté pas manqué de dégrader la note souveraine de la Russie, de stable à négative et les groupes américains de cartes bancaires Visa et MasterCard ont arrêté sans préavis de fournir leur service de paiement aux clients de plusieurs banques russes après l’annonce  de sanctions par Washington.

L’impact direct des sanctions annoncées est pour l’instant est  mineur, mais l’incorporation de la Crimée dans la Fédération russe va probablement amener l’Union européenne et les États-Unis à élargir les sanctions en réponse à l’annexion russe”, a estimé Fitch.

Les investisseurs restent malgré tout confiants  à en voir les indicateurs boursiers du moment.

 

En conclusion,  ce qui ressort de toutes les analyses économiques pour le moment c’est que le refroidissement des relations (avec l’Occident) apparaît comme un facteur négatif important pour la croissance économique et joue sur les fuites des capitaux.

Vu l’interdépendance des pays impliqués directement ou indirectement à cette crise, du point de vue économique, énergétique et géopolitique, il est désormais certains sans pouvoir en jauger la quantité, que la crise Ukrainienne aura des répercussions économiques considérables collatérales et jettent une nouvelle ombre sur des perspectives économiques qui semblaient marquer une reprise tant attendu.

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