Η Κίνα : θα προκαλέσει την νέα παγκόσμια οικονομική κρίση ;

 

Το χαοτικό  ξεκίνημα  της  χρονιάς  στις αγορές φαίνεται να έχει  ερμηνευθεί ευρέως ως αποτέλεσμα των φόβων των επενδυτών για την κινεζική οικονομική επιβράδυνση. Αυτό είναι εν μέρη αλήθεια.

Η οικονομία της Κίνας όντως επιβραδύνεται, πέρασε από 14% σε 6% σε μόλις  μια μικρή δεκαετία.  Ωστόσο, τα πραγματικά  πρόβλημα για τις αγορές  δεν είναι αποκλειστικά κινέζικα, αλλά  παγκόσμια, και ως εκ τούτου, πολύ πιο σοβαρά από ό,τι εάν επρόκειτο για μία μόνο χώρα, ακόμη και την Κίνα.

 

Το πραγματικό πρόβλημα προήρθε βασικά από την  παγκόσμια κρίση χρέους  του 2008, οι επιπτώσεις στην οικονομία απλά αναβλήθηκαν  για αργότερα, χάρη  της ισχυρής επταετής δράσης όλων των κεντρικών τραπεζών.

 

Η περίπτωση της Κίνας είναι απλά  πιο έντονη , εν μέρει  λόγο των υπερβολικών μέτρων  τόνωσης που ξεκίνησε το 2008 για τη στήριξη της ανάπτυξης , μέτρα τα οποία  πλεονάζουν σήμερα  σε σχέση με τη μειωμένη  βιομηχανική ζήτηση.  Δεύτερον,  η Κίνα αγωνίζεται ανεπιτυχώς  στην προσπάθεια της  να θέσει τις σωστές  προτεραιότητες  είτε αυτές είναι νομισματικές, οικονομικές ή  γεωπολιτικές  με αποτέλεσμα, η εμπιστοσύνη να κλονίζεται και να φθείρεται ολοένα και περισσότερο.  Μιλάμε για εμπιστοσύνη στην  ικανότητά της να συνεχίσει τις διαρθρωτικές μεταρρυθμίσεις, διατηρώντας παράλληλα την οικονομική ανάπτυξη της και το νόμισμά της. Κάτι που μας θυμίζει και την Ελληνική περίπτωση, αλλά φυσικά σε διαφορετική κλίμακα.

 

Ευχόμαστε τόσο η Κίνα όσο και η Ελλάδα  να βρουν το συντομότερο τον οικονομικό τους δρόμο.

Στο Πλαίσιο αυτό ήταν σαφές  το μήνυμα προς  το Πεκίνο, πως η Αθήνα όχι μόνον στηρίζει τις υπάρχουσες επενδύσεις της Κίνας στην Ελλάδα αλλά και επιδιώκει περαιτέρω ανάπτυξη της οικονομικής συνεργασίας των δύο χωρών, ανέφερε ο  πρωθυπουργός Α. Τσίπρας.

Τόνισε επίσης  πως η Ελλάδα στηρίζει το σχέδιο της Κίνας για τον θαλάσσιο «δρόμο του μεταξιού», που θα ενώσει την Ασία με την Ευρώπη με κομβικό σημείο το λιμάνι του Πειραιά.

 

Πέρα από όλες αυτές τις εύλογες ευχές, ο κίνδυνος παγκόσμιας οικονομικής κρίσης είναι πραγματικός καθώς η παγκόσμια ανάπτυξη παραπαίει, και παράλληλα τα επίπεδα του χρέους έχουν παραμείνει πολύ υψηλά, και η παγκόσμια ρευστότητα δεν επεκτείνεται  πλέον.

 

Το ερώτημα είναι : Τι θα αποφασίσει  η Κίνα ; Πως θα κινηθεί ;  Θα εγκαταλείψει τη φιλοδοξία της για  άνοιγμα των αγορών κεφαλαίου σε περίοδο αμφιβολιών  ; Θα συνεχίσει να υποστηρίζει το Yuan μέσω της  Λαϊκής Τράπεζας  της Κίνας,  παίρνοντας τον κίνδυνο συνέχισης  πτώσης των συναλλαγματικών αποθεμάτων της ;  Αυτή η επιλογή θα ήταν επιζήμια τόσο για την παγκόσμια ρευστότητα όσο και για την κινεζική ανάπτυξη. Μεταξύ δύο κακών, μια  πιο έντονη υποτίμηση του Yuan  γίνεται όλο και πιο πιθανή.

 

Ενόψει αυτής της κρίσης, ήδη από το 2013, η Κίνα έχει αλλάξει το μοντέλο της οικονομίας της , δεν θέλει να είναι  το «εργοστάσιο του κόσμου» για να εξαρτάται πλέον από τη διεθνή κατανάλωση (με τα σκαμπανεβάσματα της, όταν υπάρχει κρίση).

Ως εκ τούτου, η Κίνα περνά από τη βιομηχανία στις υπηρεσίες: της τραπεζικές και χρηματοοικονομικές υπηρεσίες, υπηρεσίες υγείας, του τουρισμού, της εκπαίδευσης … και προσπαθεί να υποστηρίξει την εγχώρια κατανάλωση της.

Ωστόσο, αυτή η μετάβαση θα απαιτήσει  χρόνο και την προσαρμογή των χωρών που εμπορεύονται  με την Κίνα σε αυτό το νέο οικονομικό μοντέλο.

 

Εν κατακλείδι, αυτό που βγαίνει στην επιφάνεια , κοινός  παρονομαστής  στην υπόθεση  τόσο της Κίνας όσο και της Ελλάδος, είναι ότι πρόκειται  και στις δυο περιπτώσεις και για  παγκόσμιο πρόβλημα υπό του πρίσματος ότι  συγκρούονται οι  επιχειρηματικοί κύκλοι με τους κύκλους  ρευστότητας  σε αποδυναμωμένες  οικονομίες από το υπερβολικό χρέος

 

Το χαοτικό  ξεκίνημα  της  χρονιάς  στις αγορές φαίνεται να έχει  ερμηνευθεί ευρέως ως αποτέλεσμα των φόβων των επενδυτών για την κινεζική οικονομική επιβράδυνση. Αυτό είναι εν μέρη αλήθεια.

Η οικονομία της Κίνας όντως επιβραδύνεται, πέρασε από 14% σε 6% σε μόλις  μια μικρή δεκαετία.  Ωστόσο, τα πραγματικά  πρόβλημα για τις αγορές  δεν είναι αποκλειστικά κινέζικα, αλλά  παγκόσμια, και ως εκ τούτου, πολύ πιο σοβαρά από ό,τι εάν επρόκειτο για μία μόνο χώρα, ακόμη και την Κίνα.

 

Το πραγματικό πρόβλημα προήρθε βασικά από την  παγκόσμια κρίση χρέους  του 2008, οι επιπτώσεις στην οικονομία απλά αναβλήθηκαν  για αργότερα, χάρη  της ισχυρής επταετής δράσης όλων των κεντρικών τραπεζών.

 

Η περίπτωση της Κίνας είναι απλά  πιο έντονη , εν μέρει  λόγο των υπερβολικών μέτρων  τόνωσης που ξεκίνησε το 2008 για τη στήριξη της ανάπτυξης , μέτρα τα οποία  πλεονάζουν σήμερα  σε σχέση με τη μειωμένη  βιομηχανική ζήτηση.  Δεύτερον,  η Κίνα αγωνίζεται ανεπιτυχώς  στην προσπάθεια της  να θέσει τις σωστές  προτεραιότητες  είτε αυτές είναι νομισματικές, οικονομικές ή  γεωπολιτικές  με αποτέλεσμα, η εμπιστοσύνη να κλονίζεται και να φθείρεται ολοένα και περισσότερο.  Μιλάμε για εμπιστοσύνη στην  ικανότητά της να συνεχίσει τις διαρθρωτικές μεταρρυθμίσεις, διατηρώντας παράλληλα την οικονομική ανάπτυξη της και το νόμισμά της. Κάτι που μας θυμίζει και την Ελληνική περίπτωση, αλλά φυσικά σε διαφορετική κλίμακα.

 

Ευχόμαστε τόσο η Κίνα όσο και η Ελλάδα  να βρουν το συντομότερο τον οικονομικό τους δρόμο.

Στο Πλαίσιο αυτό ήταν σαφές  το μήνυμα προς  το Πεκίνο, πως η Αθήνα όχι μόνον στηρίζει τις υπάρχουσες επενδύσεις της Κίνας στην Ελλάδα αλλά και επιδιώκει περαιτέρω ανάπτυξη της οικονομικής συνεργασίας των δύο χωρών, ανέφερε ο  πρωθυπουργός Α. Τσίπρας.

Τόνισε επίσης  πως η Ελλάδα στηρίζει το σχέδιο της Κίνας για τον θαλάσσιο «δρόμο του μεταξιού», που θα ενώσει την Ασία με την Ευρώπη με κομβικό σημείο το λιμάνι του Πειραιά.

 

Πέρα από όλες αυτές τις εύλογες ευχές, ο κίνδυνος παγκόσμιας οικονομικής κρίσης είναι πραγματικός καθώς η παγκόσμια ανάπτυξη παραπαίει, και παράλληλα τα επίπεδα του χρέους έχουν παραμείνει πολύ υψηλά, και η παγκόσμια ρευστότητα δεν επεκτείνεται  πλέον.

 

Το ερώτημα είναι : Τι θα αποφασίσει  η Κίνα ; Πως θα κινηθεί ;  Θα εγκαταλείψει τη φιλοδοξία της για  άνοιγμα των αγορών κεφαλαίου σε περίοδο αμφιβολιών  ; Θα συνεχίσει να υποστηρίζει το Yuan μέσω της  Λαϊκής Τράπεζας  της Κίνας,  παίρνοντας τον κίνδυνο συνέχισης  πτώσης των συναλλαγματικών αποθεμάτων της ;  Αυτή η επιλογή θα ήταν επιζήμια τόσο για την παγκόσμια ρευστότητα όσο και για την κινεζική ανάπτυξη. Μεταξύ δύο κακών, μια  πιο έντονη υποτίμηση του Yuan  γίνεται όλο και πιο πιθανή.

 

Ενόψει αυτής της κρίσης, ήδη από το 2013, η Κίνα έχει αλλάξει το μοντέλο της οικονομίας της , δεν θέλει να είναι  το «εργοστάσιο του κόσμου» για να εξαρτάται πλέον από τη διεθνή κατανάλωση (με τα σκαμπανεβάσματα της, όταν υπάρχει κρίση).

Ως εκ τούτου, η Κίνα περνά από τη βιομηχανία στις υπηρεσίες: της τραπεζικές και χρηματοοικονομικές υπηρεσίες, υπηρεσίες υγείας, του τουρισμού, της εκπαίδευσης … και προσπαθεί να υποστηρίξει την εγχώρια κατανάλωση της.

Ωστόσο, αυτή η μετάβαση θα απαιτήσει  χρόνο και την προσαρμογή των χωρών που εμπορεύονται  με την Κίνα σε αυτό το νέο οικονομικό μοντέλο.

 

Εν κατακλείδι, αυτό που βγαίνει στην επιφάνεια , κοινός  παρονομαστής  στην υπόθεση  τόσο της Κίνας όσο και της Ελλάδος, είναι ότι πρόκειται  και στις δυο περιπτώσεις και για  παγκόσμιο πρόβλημα υπό του πρίσματος ότι  συγκρούονται οι  επιχειρηματικοί κύκλοι με τους κύκλους  ρευστότητας  σε αποδυναμωμένες  οικονομίες από το υπερβολικό χρέος

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